盈多多彩票APP

能源转型中我国电力能源的结构、问题与趋势

发布时间: 2020-08-05 15:37:00   来源:社科院工业经济研究所  作者:

  DIANLIXITONGZHUANXING,GUANJIANZAIDIANWANGZHUANXING。YIFANGMIANXUYAOTONGGUOJISHUBIANGEHETOUZIFANGXIANGDEDIAOZHENGSHIXIANZHUANXING,LINGYIFANGMIANZEYAOYIKAODIANLITIZHIGAIGE。

盈多多彩票APP  BAWOWOGUONENGYUANZHUANXINGDEDABEIJINGYAOKANDIANLINENGYUANJIEGOU,ZHUYAOCONGNENGYUANZHUANXINGDITANHUAHESHUZIHUAQUSHIZHEILIANGGEFANGMIANLAISIKAODANGQIANDIANLINENGYUANJIEGOUDETEDIANYUWENTI,ZAICIJICHUSHANGFENXIZHONGGUODIANLIJIEGOUDEWEILAI。

  我国电力能源结构的主要特点

  WOGUODIANLINENGYUANJIEGOUDETEDIANKEYIZHUYAOCONGJIGEFANGMIANLAICHANSHU:YISHIDIANLIZAIYIGEGUOJIANENGYUANFUWUZHONGDEDIWEI,ERSHIFADIANJIEGOUDEDITANHUA,SANSHIDIANWANGJIEGOU,SISHIYONGHUCEDIANLIJIEGOU。

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表1 2018年世界及主要国家终端能源消费结构(按品种)

  WOGUOFADIANJIEGOUXIANXIANDITANHUAQUSHI。

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图1 我国发电装机结构变化

图2 我国发电量结构变化

盈多多彩票APP  WOGUODIANLITOUZIYIDIANWANGTOUZIWEIZHU,DIANYUANTOUZIYIFEIHUASHINENGYUANZHUANGJIWEIZHU。

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图3 2010-2018年中国电力建设项目的全部投资

图4 2019年我国电力投资构成情况

盈多多彩票APP  HUODIANFADIANZHUANGJIGUIMOQUXIANGDAXINGHUA,GUANGFUFADIANQUXIANGFENBUSHI。

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图5 全球十大可再生能源发展国可再生能源占发电量的比重

盈多多彩票APP  RANER,JIBIANKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFAZHANGUIMODELINGXIANDIWEIJUEDINGLEWOGUOZAIYINGDUIQIHOUBIANHUAFANGMIANDEQUANQIUXIANXINGZHEJIAOSE,DANZHEIBINGBUYIWEIZHEWOGUOZAINENGYUANZHUANXINGFANGMIANYECHUYUTONGYANGDEWEIZHI。NENGYUANZHUANXING,BENZHISHANGSHIYIGEGUOJIANEIBUDENENGYUANTIDAIWENTI。YINCI,KEZAISHENGNENGYUANDEXIANGDUILIANG,JIZAINENGYUANXITONGZHONGDEBIZHONG,GENGNENGFANYINGNENGYUANZHUANXINGDEJIEDUAN。SUIZHEKEZAISHENGNENGYUANZAINENGYUANXITONGZHONGFENETISHENGDAOBUTONGSHUIPING,QIFAZHANTEZHENGHESUOMIANLINDEWENTISHIBUTONGDE。

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盈多多彩票APP  CONGNENGYUANZHUANXINGQUSHIKANWOGUODIANLINENGYUANDEJIEGOUWENTI

  RENSHIDIANYUANJIEGOUCUNZAIDEWENTI,XUYAOYOUYIGEQIANZAIDEPINGJIABIAOZHUN。YEJIUSHISHUO,YONGSHENMEBIAOZHUNQUPINGJIAMOUYIGETEDIANDAODISHIYOUDIANHAISHIWENTI。BIXUCONGNENGYUANZHUANXINGDEQUSHIHELUOJIJIAODUQUSIKAODIANLINENGYUANJIEGOU,SHENZHIDANGQIANDIANLIXITONGDEQUANBUWENTI。

  能源转型对电力行业的影响

  BENCINENGYUANZHUANXINGSHIYINGDUIQIHOUBIANHUASUOTUIDONGDE,ZUIZHONGMUDESHIDAFUJIANSHAORENLEIHUODONGDEERYANGHUATANPAIFANG,YIZHIQUANQIUBIANNUANQUSHI。NENGYUANZHUANXINGSHIYINGXIANGBAOKUODIANLIXINGYEZAINEIDESUOYOUNENGYUANXINGYEWEILAI50NIANZUIJIBENHECHIJIUDEYINSU,DUIDIANLIXINGYEFAZHANFANGXIANG、SHANGYEMOSHIHEDIANLITIZHIDOUJIANGCHANSHENGSHENYUANYINGXIANG。

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  NENGYUANZHUANXINGDELIANGGEZHIZHU。CONGGEGUOSHIJIANKAN,DITANDAOLINGTANNENGYUANDESHIXIAN,YISHIYIKAODALITIGAONENGYUANXIAOLV,JIANSHAOHUASHINENGYUANXIAOFEIZONGLIANG;ERSHIDALIFAZHANKEZAISHENGNENGYUAN。ERZHUANXINGDEGUANJIANSHINENGYUANXITONGDEZHUANXING,QIZHONGDIANLIXITONGZHUANXINGSHIGUANJIANZHIGUANJIAN。

  DUIDIANLIXINGYEDEYINGXIANG。NENGYUANZHUANXINGDEYAOQIUJUTIDAODIANLIXINGYE,QIYINGXIANGZHUYAOBIAOXIANWEILIANGGEFANGMIAN:FADIAN、DIANWANGHEYONGDIANHUANJIEDEDITANHUA;ERSHIZHENGGEDIANLIXITONGDESHUZIHUA,YONGSHUZIJISHULAISHIYINGNENGYUANZHUANXINGGUOCHENGZHONGDETIAOZHAN,GENGHAODISHIYINGYONGHUDEXUQIUBIANHUA。

  当前电力结构存在的问题

  CONGDITANJIAODUTANDIANLIJIEGOUDEWENTI,ZIRANHUITIDAOHUODIANBIZHONGTAIGAODENGWENTI。DANBIZHERENWEI,ZHEIZHISHIWOGUODIANLIXINGYEDEJIEDUANXINGTEZHENG,YINWEIHUODIANBIZHONGJINNIANLAIDEQUEZAICHIXUXIAJIANG,FEIHUASHINENGYUANZHUANGJIHEFADIANLIANGWENBUSHANGSHENG。ERYIMEIWEIZHUDENENGYUANJIEGOU,BUKENENGKUAISUKUAYUEDAOYIDITANDIANLIWEIZHU。

  SHOUXIAN,WOGUODIANLIXITONGLINGHUOXINGCHASHIGENBENWENTI,YUANBUNENGMANZUXIANJIEDUANNENGYUANZHUANXINGDEYAOQIU。

  SUIZHEDAIYOUBODONGXINGTEDIANDEFENGGUANGDIANBIZHONGDESHANGSHENG,BIRANYAOQIUDIANLIXITONGYIGENGGAODELINGHUOXINGLAIYINGDUIZHEIZHONGBODONGXING。GENJUOUZHOUDEJINGYAN,TISHENGXIANYOUDIANLIXITONGBODONGXINGDECHANGJIANFANGFAYOURUXIAWUZHONG:

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  ERSHIJIAQIANGQUYUDIANWANGDEHULIANHUTONG,FAHUIXIANGLINDIANWANGDE“JIANJIECHUNENGXITONG”ZUOYONG,YOUHUAZIYUANLIYONG,JIANSHAOXITONGZONGTICHENGBEN。

盈多多彩票APP  SANSHITIGAODIANLIXUQIUCEDELINGHUOXING,ZHUYAOSHIZONGHEYUNYONGCHUNENG、REBENG、DIANDONGQICHE、ZHINENGDIANBIAODENGJISHUSHOUDUAN,TIGAOFUHEDEKEDIAOJIEXING。

盈多多彩票APP  SISHIFAZHANKEZAISHENGNENGYUANGONGRE、ZENGJIACHUREZHUANGZHI,ZENGJIADIANCHANGLINGHUODU。YUCHUDIANXIANGBI,CHUREZAIJISHUSHANGGENGJIAYIYUSHIXIAN,CHENGBENYEXIANGDUIYAODILIANDEDUO。

  WUSHIZAISHENGCHANCE、DIANWANGCEHEYONGHUCECAIYONGCHUNENGJISHU,TIGAOZHEIXIEHUANJIELINGHUOXING。

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盈多多彩票APP  QICI,HUODIANJIZUDEDAXINGHUAYUDIANLIXITONGLINGHUOXINGDENEIZAIMAODUN。

盈多多彩票APP  MUQIAN,HENDUODIANLIZHENGCESILUJIBENSHANGBUKAOLVNENGYUANZHUANXINGDEYINGXIANG。ZUIDIANXINGDEJIUSHIDIANLIXINGYEJIENENGJIANPAIHETAOTAILUOHOUCHANNENGDEZHENGCEZHONGYIZHITUICHONG、BINGBEITUIGUANGDAOQITAXINGYEDE“SHANGDAYAXIAO”ZHENGCE。CIHOU,GUANTINGXIAOHUODIANJIZUDEBIAOZHUNBUDUANTIGAO。MUQIAN,YIJINGYAOQIU20WANJIQIYIXIAQIANWAHUODIANJIZUBIXUGUANBI,BINGGULISHANGDAJIZU。JUTONGJI,60WANQIANWAJIQIYISHANGHUODIANJIZUZHANQUANBUJIZUDEBIZHONGYIJINGZHANDAO44%YISHANG。

  RANER,BUDUANTIGAOHUODIANJIZUGUIMO,BENZHISHANGBULIYUTIGAODIANLIXITONGLINGHUOXING。YINWEISUIZHEKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANJIZUBILIDEJINYIBUTIGAO,HUODIANJIZUWEILAIJIANGCONGJIHEDIANYUANZHUANBIANWEIBEIYONGDIANYUAN。YEJIUSHISHUO,ZAIFENGGUANGDIANFADIANGAOFENG,DALIANGDEHUODIANJIZUJIUYAOTINGXIALAIHUOZHEDIFUHEYUNZHUANRANGFENGGUANGDIANJIZUYOUXIANFADIAN;DANGFENGGUANGDIANCHULIDIAOXIALAISHI,HUODIANJIZUYAOMASHANGDINGSHANGQU。ZHEIJIUYAOQIUHUODIANJIZUYOUZUGOUDELINGHUOXING。XIANRAN,JIZUGUIMOYUEDA,LINGHUOXINGYUECHA。ERQIE,60WANQIANWADECHAOLINJIEJIZURUGUODIFUHEYUNXING,MEIHAOHEPAIFANGDOUYAODAFUDUZENGJIA,JIENENGJIANPAIDEMUDEYEWUFAWANQUANSHIXIAN。

盈多多彩票APP  DISAN,SHUWANGQIANG、PEIWANGRUODEDIANWANGJIEGOUWUFASHIYINGYONGHUCEBIANGEDEXUYAO。

盈多多彩票APP  NENGYUANZHUANXINGDUIDIANLIXITONGLAISHUO,ZHISHAOHUICHANSHENGLIANGGEZHONGDADEFANGXIANGXINGBIANHUA:YISHISUIZHEDALIANGFENBUSHIGUANGFU、XIAOXINGSHENGWUZHIDIANZHAN、DUONENGHUBUDEWEIDIANWANGDENGZAIYONGHUCECHUXIAN,DIANLIXITONGDIANNENGJIANGCONGSHENGCHANDUANXIANGXIAOFEIDUANDEDANXIANGLIUDONG,ZHUANBIANWEISHUANGXIANGLIUDONG(YONGHUDUANYESHENGCHANDIANNENG——JICHANXIAOZHE,prosumer);ERSHIDIANWANGCONGZONGXIANGYITIHUADEJIZHONGSHIDIANWANGXIANGFENBUSHIBIANPINGDIANWANGZHUANBIAN。

  ZHEILIANGGEZHUANBIAN,DOUXUYAOYIGESHUZIHUA、ZHINENGHUASHUIPINGGAOHEBENDIPINGHENGNENGLIQIANGDEBENDIPEIDIANWANG。WULUNSHICHUYUDALIANGXIAOXINGDEFENBUSHIDIANZHAN“JICHENG”DEXUYAO,HAISHIDALIANGCHUNENGSHEBEI、DIANDONGQIYEDENGFENBUSHIJIERUDUIPEIDIANWANGYOUHUAYUNXINGHEKONGZHIDEXUYAO,JIAKUAISHIXIANPEIDIANWANGZHUANXINGDOUPOZAIMEIJIE。

  WOGUODESHUDIANWANGDEJISHUSHUIPINGBEIYENEIRENWEISHISHIJIELINGXIANDE,DANZHANGQIYILAI,WOGUOTOUZIDOUSHI“ZHONGSHUQINGPEI”,DAOZHIDIANWANGJIEGOUBORUO,ZIDONGHUASHUIPINGDI;JICHUSHUJUFENGEYANZHONGWUFAGONGXIANG,XINXIHUASHUIPINGDI,YUANBUNENGYINGDUIDIANLIXITONGZHUANXINGDEGUOCHENGSUODAILAIDETIAOZHAN,YEBUNENGSHIYINGWEILAIZHIHUICHENGSHIHEDITANFAZHANDEYAOQIU。

  电力结构未来的趋势

盈多多彩票APP  DIANLIJIEGOUWEILAIFAZHANQUSHICONGLIANGGEJIAODUCHANSHU,YIGESHIANZHAONENGYUANZHUANXINGDEYAOQIU,DUIWEILAIDIANLIJIEGOUDEYIGE“QINGJINGFENXI”,ERSHINENGYUANZHUANXINGCONGJIEGOUFANGMIANDAOZHIDIANLIXITONGDEBIANHUA,JIDIANLIXITONGZHUANXING。

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盈多多彩票APP  ZHEILIYINYONGZHONGGUODIANLIGUIHUAYUANDUIWOGUO2035NIANDIANLIJIEGOUDEYIGEQINGJINGFENXI。FENXIFENWEIJIZHUNQINGJING(NPS)HEKECHIXUFAZHANQINGJING(SDS)。


图6 中国2035年发电装机结构,NPS情景以及SDS情景

  CONGTU6KEYIKANDAO,YUJIZHUNQINGJINGXIANGBI,KECHIXUFAZHANQINGJINGDEZHUANGJIJIEGOUZHONG,GUANGFUFADIANBIZHONGZENGJIA8%,FENGDIANZENGJIA4%,HEDIANZENGJIA1%,ERRANQIFADIANHERANMEIFADIANFENBIEJIANSHAO1%HE12%。FADIANJIEGOUFANGMIAN,KECHIXUFAZHANQINGJINGZHONG,GUANGFUFADIANLIANGZENGJIALE8%,FENGDIANZENGJIALE6%,SHUIDIANZENGJIALE4%,HEDIANZENGJIALE4%,RANQIFADIANBUBIAN,ERRANMEIFADIANZEDAFUJIANSHAO24%。

盈多多彩票APP  DUIQINGJINGFENXIDEGUODUGUANZHU,RONGYIDAOZHIYIZHONGQINGXIANG:BADIANLIZHUANXINGJIANDANLIJIEWEIBUDUANZENGJIAFADIANJIEGOUZHONGKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDEBIZHONG,CONGERHUIQINGXIANGYUCAIQUCHUANTONGDE“DAGANKUAISHANG”(BIRUWOGUOJIANFENGDIANSANXIA)DEFANGSHI,DUANQINEIDAFUTIGAOKEZAISHENGNENGYUANBIZHONG。KEZAISHENGNENGYUANBIZHONGBIJIAOXIAODESHIHOU,HUASHINENGYUANYUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANZHIJIANDEMAODUNBUDA,DANSUIZHEKEZAISHENGNENGYUANBIZHONGDEJINYIBUTIGAO,LIANGZHEZHIJIANDELIYIMAODUNBIRANDAOZHIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFAZHANMIANLINZHONGZHONGZHANGAI。ZHENGRUMUQIANWOMENSUOMIANLINDEWENTIYIYANG:DIANWANGXIANJIADINGZIJIBUXUYAOZUODADEBIANGE,BINGBACHUXIANCHONGTUDEYUANYINGUIYUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANFANG。

  DIANLIXITONGZHUANXINGDEFANGXIANG。

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