盈多多彩票APP

风电大基地卷土重来,弃风限电大概率重演

发布时间: 2020-08-26 09:28:03   来源:财经十一人(ID:caijingEleven)   作者:徐沛宇

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盈多多彩票APP  YINWEIDIANWANGBIXUSHISHIPINGHENG,YINDIANWANGXIAONANENGLIBUZUERBEIPOFANGQIDEFENGDIAN,CHENGWEI“QIFENG”。2015NIANQIANHOU,SANBEIDIQUDEFENGDIANDAJIDIYOUYUWAISONGTONGDAODUANQUE、DANGDIXIAONABUZU,QIFENGLVDADAOFENGZHI,PINGJUNQIFENGLVCHAOGUO20%,BUFENDIQUQIFENGLVYIDUJIEJIN100%。

盈多多彩票APP  BENLUNJIANSHEGAOCHAOCONG2018NIAN12YUEKAISHI,GUOJIADIANLITOUZIJITUANYOUXIANGONGSI(XIACHENGGUODIANTOU)QIXIANEIMENGGUWULANCHABUFENGDIANJIDIYIQI600WANQIANWAXIANGMUHUODEHEZHUN。2019NIAN,FENGDIANDAJIDIMINGLUJINYIBUKUORONG,ZHONGGUANGHEJITUANQIXIANEIMENGGUXINGANMENG300WANQIANWAPINGJIAFENGDIANXIANGMUDENGDUOGEDAJIDILUXUHUODEHEZHUN。

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图1:三北地区弃风率变化 数据来源:根据公开资料整理

盈多多彩票APP  YENEIRENSHIDANYOU,XINYILUNFENGDIANDAJIDIDEDIANYUANJIANSHEGUIMOYIDAYUDIANWANGJIANSHEGUIMO,JIANGZAICICHUXIANQIFENGXIANDIANDEQINGKUANG。“WEILAIJINIANLI,SANBEIDIQUQIFENGXIANDIANJIANGSHIBIRANDE。”YUANZHONGGUOGUODIANJITUANGONGSIDANGZUCHENGYUAN、FUZONGJINGLIXIEZHANGJUNDUI《CAIJING》JIZHESHUO。TARENWEI,CIQIAN“XIANJIANSHEHOUJIEJUEXIAONAWENTI”DEDAJIDIMOSHIBUYINGGAIZAIJIXU,TABULIYUFENGDIANCHANYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN。

  风电大基地2.0

  SUIZHEZHONGDONGBU、NANBUFENGDIANZIYUANDEJINQUE,YIJIFENGDIANQUBUTIEDETUIJIN,FENGZIYUANHEJIANSHECHENGBENJUNZHANYOUSHIDESANBEIDIQUZHONGXINCHENGWEIFENGDIANKAIFARETU。

  YUSHANGYILUNDAFENGDIANJIDIJIZHONGZAIXINJIANG、GANSUBUTONG,ZHEIYILUNFENGDIANDAJIDIJIANSHEDEZHULIJUNCHUXIANZAINEIMENGGU。WUDEMAIKENZIJINRIFABUDE《2020NIANZHONGGUOFENGDIANSHICHANGZHANWANG》CHENG,MUQIANZHONGGUOYOUCHAOGUO25GELUSHANGFENGDIANJIDIXIANGMUCHUYUGUIHUAHEJIANSHEZHONG,ZONGRONGLIANGCHAOGUO1YIQIANWA。CHUSICHUANLIANGSHANFENGDIANJIDIYIWAI,ZHEIXIEDAJIDIJUNFENBUZAISANBEIDIQU,CHAOGUO45%DEJIDIGUIHUAZAINEIMENGGU。

盈多多彩票APP  NEIMENGGUZHISUOYICHENGWEICILUNFENGDIANDAJIDIJUJIAODIAN,CHULEQIJUYOUQUANGUOZUIYOUFENGZIYUANZHIWAI,HAIYUQIZAISANBEIDIQULILVXIANBAITUOHONGSEYUJINGYOUGUAN。

盈多多彩票APP  GUOJIANENGYUANJUYU2017NIANJIAOTINGLESANBEIDIQUDEFENGDIANJIANSHE,JIANGNEIMENGGU、GANSU、XINJIANG、HEILONGJIANGDENGLIUSHENGQUSHEWEIFENGDIANKAIFAJIANSHEHONGSEYUJINGQUYU,TINGZHIXINZENGFENGDIANZHUANGJIHEZHUN。2018NIAN、2019NIAN,NEIMENGGULIANXULIANGNIANTIAOCHUHONGSEYUJINGQU,ZHUANBIANWEIFENGDIANKAIFACHENGSEYUJINGQU。ERGANSU,XINJIANGZHIDAO2020NIANCAIZHAIXIAHONGSEYUJINGDEMAOZI,ZHUANBIANWEICHENGSEYUJINGQUYU。

盈多多彩票APP  JIANGJIWEICHENGSEYUJINGQUZHIHOU,XINJIANG、GANSUYEKAISHIYUNNIANGJIANSHEGENGDUODEFENGDIANDAJIDI。JINNIAN3YUE,XINJIANGHEGANSUFENBIEFABULEZHONGDATOUZIXIANGMUJIHUA,QIZHONG,XINJIANGJIHUATOUZIZHUNDONGXINNENGYUANJIDIXIANGMUHEXINJIANGPINGJIASHANGWANGSHIFANXIANGMU,GUIMOCHAOGUO500WANQIANWA;GANSUJIHUATOUZIJIUHUZHILIUGONGCHENGPEITAOWAISONGFENGDIANXIANGMUHETONGWEIFENGDIANJIDI20WANQIANWAFENGDIANCHANGJIANSHEXIANGMU,LINGWAIHAIYOUZONGGUIMODA500WANQIANWADELIANGGEFENGDIANJIDIDAIJIAN。

  WUDEMAIKENZIZHONGGUOFENGDIANSHICHANGGAOJIYANJIUGUWENLIXIAOYANGDUI《CAIJING》JIZHEBIAOSHI,YUJICONG2020NIANDAO2029NIAN,ZHONGGUOFENGDIANXINGYEJIANGYOUCHAOGUO2.5YIQIANWADEXINZENGZHUANGJI,DABUFENFENGDIANJIDIXIANGMUJIANGJIZHONGZAIWEILAIWUNIANKAIJIANHEBINGWANG。FENGDIANDAJIDIXIANGMUDUOWEIYUFENGSUJIAOHAOQIEYIYUDIAOZHUANGDEQUYU,DUDIANCHENGBENJIAODI。

  SANBEIDIQUYONGYOUDEJISHUKEKAIFAFENGDIANZIYUANZHANQUANGUODE80%。JIEZHI2019NIANDI,SANBEIDIQUDEZHUANGJIRONGLIANGZHANQUANGUO70%。QIFENGXIANDIANDEQINGKUANGJINJINIANZHUJIANHAOZHUAN,2019NIANQUANGUOPINGJUNQIFENGLV4%,TONGBIXIAJIANG3GEBAIFENDIAN。

  SANBEIDIQUDEFENGDIANDAJIDIJIANSHEJUANTUZHONGLAISUIHEHUQINGLI,DANDUOWEIJIESHOU《CAIJING》JIZHECAIFANGDEYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,FENGDIANDAJIDIDEJIANSHESUDUGUOKUAI,MIANLINSHIKONGFENGXIAN。

  XIEZHANGJUNBIAOSHI,CONGZHONGGUODEZIYUANBINGFUKAN,SANBEIDIQUDEQUEYINGGAISHIFENGDIANKAIFADEZHUZHANCHANG。DANSHI,DANGQIANSANBEIDIQUDEWAISONGTONGDAORENGRANBUZU,FENGDIANDAJIDIJIANSHESUDUGUOKUAI,BIRANHUITIGAOQIFENGXIANDIANFENGXIAN。DIFANGZHENGFUHEFADIANQIYEDUIFENGDIANKAIFADEREQING,YAOJIANLIZAIJUYOUPEITAOSHESHIDEJICHUZHISHANG,FOUZEJIUHUIZHONGDAOFUZHE。

  BEIJINGRUIKETONGCHUANGNENGYUANKEJIYOUXIANGONGSIFUZONGJINGLISONGJUNYERENWEI,MUQIANSANBEIDIQUFENGDIANDAJIDIXIANGMUDEGUIHUAYUJIANSHESUDUGUOKUAI,WAISONGTONGDAOHEDANGDIXIAONANENGLIMINGXIANBUZU。DANTATONGSHIRENWEI“ZHEIXIEXUANBUGUIHUAJIANSHEDEXIANGMU,JIANCHENGBINGWANGDESHIJIANSHIKEKONGKEDIAOZHENGDE。FADIANQIYEZAISANBEIDIQUGUIHUAJIANSHEFENGDIANDAJIDIGENGDUODISHIWEILETIQIANQIANGZHANZIYUAN。”

盈多多彩票APP  CILUNDAJIDIJIANSHEGAOCHAO,ZUISHOUGUANZHUDESHIGUODIANTOUQIXIAWEIYUNEIMENGGUWULANCHABUDE600WANQIANWAFENGDIANXIANGMU。GAIXIANGMUSHIQUANQIUDANTIGUIMOZUIDADELUSHANGFENGDIANXIANGMU,YESHIGUONEISHOUGEDAGUIMOKEZAISHENGNENGYUANPINGJIASHANGWANGSHIFANXIANGMU,YU2019NIAN9YUEKAIGONG,JIHUAYU2020NIANDIQIANBINGWANGFADIAN。

  ZHIQINGYENEIRENSHIGAOSU《CAIJING》JIZHE,GUODIANTOUZAINEIMENGGUDEDUOGEXIANGMUSUOSHUYUANGONGCIQIANYIDIAOZHIWULANCHABUXIANGMU,GAIXIANGMUJIANSHEJINZHANJIAOWEISHUNLI。XIAONAFANGANCIQIANYIZUOCHUGUIHUA,DANJUTILUOSHIQINGKUANGBUMING。

  GUODIANTOUJITUANWEIHUIFU《CAIJING》JIZHEGUANYUWULANCHABUXIANGMUDECAIFANGQINGQIU。

图2:规划和建设中的风电项目 资料来源:伍德麦肯兹咨询有限公司

  特高压外送真的靠谱吗

盈多多彩票APP  YENEIRENSHIRENWEI,DANGQIANYIJIZHONGDUANQINEI,SANBEIDIQUDEFENGDIANXIAONANANDUBUYAYUJINIANQIAN。

盈多多彩票APP  GENJUGUOJIANENGYUANJUDEXIANGGUANGUIDING,FENGDIANKAIFACHENGSEYUJINGQUYUDEXINZENGFENGDIANXIANGMU,XUSHILIYONGKUASHENGKUAQUSHUDIANTONGDAODEWAISONGXIANGMU,HUOZHELUOSHIBENDIXIAONACUOSHIDEPINGJIAXIANGMU。CONGSANBEIDIQUDEDIANLIGONGXUQINGKUANGKAN,XINZENGDEDAJIDIXIANGMUDADUOJIANGTONGGUOTEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLU,WAISONGZHIZHONGDONGBUHENANFANGDIQU。

  TEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLUYINQITOUZIJUDA、SHUSONGXIAOLVCUNZHENGYI,JIANSHESUDUBINGBUKUAI。JUPENGBOXINNENGYUANCAIJINGTONGJI,JIEZHI2020NIANSHANGBANNIAN,ZHONGGUOYIQUANMIANTOUYUNDETEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLUGONG21TIAO,ZONGSHUDIANNENGLIYUEHE1.54YIQIANWA。2019NIAN,QUANGUOTEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLUDEPINGJUNLIYONGLVWEI53%,FENGDIANHEGUANGFUZHANQISHUDIANLIANGDEBIZHONGCONGSINIANQIANDE4%ZENGJIADAOLE13%。


图3:特高线输电线路分布图资料来源:兴业证券

  JUPENGBOXINNENGYUANCAIJINGTONGJI,MUQIANZAIJIANDETEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLUGONG7TIAO,ZONGSHUDIANNENGLIYUE0.45YIQIANWA,MUBIAOTOUCHANSHIJIANWEIJINNIANHUO 2021NIAN。LINGWAI,XINJIJIANMUBIAOXIAHAIYOU9TIAOCHUYUBUTONGGUIHUAJIEDUANDETEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLU,ZONGSHUDIANNENGLIWEI0.62YIQIANWA,YOUWANGZAI2025NIANQIANTOUCHAN。

盈多多彩票APP  XIEZHANGJUNBIAOSHI,TEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLUJIANSHESUDUZAIJIAKUAI,DANYUGUIHUAZHONGDESANBEIDIQUFENGDIANDAJIDIGUIMOXIANGBI,QUEKOURENGRANHENDA。YIXIEDIFANGZHENGFUHEFADIANQIYEZAIXINJIANFENGDIANXIANGMUQIAN,BINGMEIYOUZUNSHOUXIANLUOSHIXIAONATONGDAODEYUANZE。

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  OUMEIDIQUDEDIANWANGJIBENSHIWANGZHUANGDIANWANG,JIHUBUCUNZAI“DAFEIXIANSHI”DEZHANGJULI“DIANDUIDIAN”“DIANDUIWANG”DETEGAOYASHUDIANXIANLU。ZHUOERDEHUANJINGYANJIU(BEIJING)ZHONGXINZHURENJIANSHOUXIJINGJISHIZHANGSHUWEIDUI《CAIJING》JIZHEBIAOSHI,RENHEDIANYUANDOUYINGGAISHOUXIANBINGRUBENDIDIANWANG,RANHOUYIWANGDUIWANGDEFANGSHIWAISONG,ZHEIYANGCAISHIKECHIXUQIEJINGJIYOUXIAODEMOSHI。

盈多多彩票APP  YIWULIPINGHENGDESHIJIAOKAN,DAJIDIWAISONGFENGDIANDESHURUDIBINGBUSHIYIZHIQUEDIAN,ZHISHIZAIMOUXIEJIANFENGSHIKEJUBUQUEDIAN,ZHEIYIWEIZHEZHEIZHONGJIANGZHIWAISONGDEDIANLI,ZAIMOUXIESHIHOUDEJIAGEGAOYUQIJIAZHI。YINCI,TEGAOYAWAISONGTONGDAORUGUODABUDAOSHEDINGDELIYONGLV、FENGDIANWAISONGDESHIJICHENGBENJIANGYUANGAOYUSHEDINGSHUIPING。

  SUIZHEDIANLIXUQIUGUOSHENGDEJIAJU,YIJIFENGGUANGZHUANGJIBILIDETIGAO,“TEGAOYAJIANGZHIWAISONGMOSHIDAILAIDEDIXIAOLVHEGAOCHENGBENSUNSHIJIANGRIYIMINGXIAN”,ZHANGSHUWEISHUO。TARENWEI,DAJIDIMOSHISHUYU“QIANGMAIQIANGMAI”,YINGLIJITINGZHI。TONGSHI,YAOGAIBIANDANGQIANJIANGHUADEDIAODUFANSHI,GOUJIAN“WANGDUIWANG”DEWAISONGMOSHI。

  XINNENGYUANDIANLIBINGWANGCHENGBENDESHANGSHENGYIYINQIYUELAIYUEDUODEGUANZHU。ZHEIYESHIWEILAIYINGXIANGFENGDIANDAJIDIWAISONGDEZHONGYAOYINSU。

盈多多彩票APP  ZHONGGUORENMINDAXUEYINGYONGJINGJIXUEYUANZHULIJIAOSHOUZHENG㼆RENWEI,XINNENGYUANDIANLIDEXIAONAHUIDUIDIANWANGDEANQUANXINGHEWENDINGXINGDAILAIFUMIANYINGXIANG,CHANSHENGGENGDUODEXIAONACHENGBEN,ZHEIYICHENGBENJIANGSUIZHEXINNENGYUANZHUANGJIBILVDETISHENGERZHUJIANZENGJIA。ZAIKENDINGXINNENGYUANFADIANDEZHENGWAIBUXINGDETONGSHI,YEYAOKEGUANPINGGUQIDUIDIANWANGZAOCHENGDEXIAONACHENGBEN。YEJIEYINGHELIGUIHUAXINNENGYUANZHUANGJI、JIANLIJIANKANGDECHENGBENFENTANJIZHI,CAINENGGENGHAOXIAONAXINNENGYUAN。

盈多多彩票APP  MUQIANJIZHIXIA,DIANWANGQIYEDUIXINNENGYUANDIANLIXIAONADEJIJIXINGBUGAO。WEILETIGAODIANWANGXITONGDUIXINNENGYUANDEXIAONANENGLI,FENGDIANDAJIDIXIANGMUJIHUDOUBEIYAOQIUPEIJIANHUODIANDIAOFENGJIZU,HUOZHECHUNENGXIANGMU。LVSEHEPINGZISHENXIANGMUZHURENZHANGWENQUANDUI《CAIJING》JIZHEBIAOSHI,WULUNSHIPEIJIANHUODIANHAISHICHUNENGXIANGMU,DOUZENGJIALEDAJIDIFENGDIANKAIFADECHENGBEN。ZHEIYANGKONGZHILEQIFENGLV,QUEWEIBEILEJIANSHEDAJIDIXIANGMUDICHENGBENDECHUZHONG,JIANGDILEFENGDIANWAISONGDEJINGJIXING。

  ERRUGUOBUPEIJIANHUODIANHUOCHUNENGXIANGMU,QIFENGXIANDIANZAOCHENGDESUNSHIJIANGYOUFADIANQIYEZIXINGCHENGDAN。GUOJIANENGYUANJU《GUANYUWULANCHABUFENGDIANJIDIGUIHUAJIANSHEYOUGUANSHIXIANGDEFUHAN》ZHICHU,RUFENGDIANTOUZIQIYEZAIPEITAOSHUDIANTONGDAOGONGCHENGHEZHUNQIANKAIGONGJIANSHE,YOUCIZAOCHENGDEWUFASONGCHUHUOXIANDIANWENTIYOUFENGDIANTOUZIQIYEZIXINGCHENGDANXIANGYINGSUNSHIHEZEREN。

  电力过剩,火电风电光电竞争加剧

  TEGAOYAWAISONGTONGDAODEDUANQUEKEYITONGGUOSHIJIANMANMANMIBU,ERQUANGUODIANLIGONGYINGGUOSHENGDEQUSHI,ZESHIFENGDIANDAJIDIXIANGMUGENGNANJIEDENANTI。

  DUIYUSHANGYILUNFENGDIANDAJIDIQIFENGXIANDIANDEYUANYIN,GUOJIAFAGAIWEIYUANFUZHUREN、GUOJIANENGYUANJUYUANJUZHANGZHANGGUOBAOSHENGQIANCENGZHUANWENCHENG,BIAOMIANSHANGKANQILAISHIYINWEIWAISONGTONGDAODEDUANQUE,GENBENYUANYINZESHIDIANLIXUQIUZENGZHANGFALI。

  YUSHANGYILUNFENGDIANDAJIDIJIANCHENGSHIXIANGBI,MUQIANQUANGUODIANLIGUOSHENGDEZHUANGKUANGGENGJIAYANJUN。ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUANLIANGNIANQIANFABUDE《ZHONGGUONENGYUANQIANJING2018—2050》BAOGAOJIUZHICHU,ZHONGGUODENENGYUANXUQIUZONGTIYIJINGDAFENG;WEILAI30NIAN,DIANLIXUQIUJIANGCHENGXIANXIAJIANGTAISHI。ZHONGGUODONGBEI、HUANBOHAI、XINANDIQUYIJINGCHUXIANDIANLIGUOSHENG,WEILAIQUANGUODIANLIGONGYINGJIANGJINYIBUGUOSHENG。

  YIGUODIANTOUWULANCHABU600WANQIANWAFENGDIANJIDIWEILI,GAIXIANGMUSUOFADIANLIANGJIANGTONGGUO500QIANFUJIAOLIUTONGDAOKUAQUYUSHUSONGZHIJINGJINJIDIANWANG,MEINIANJIANGWEIJINGJINJIDIQUSHUSONGYUE200YIQIANWASHIDIANLIANG。“HUABEIDIANWANGBENJIUBUQUEDIAN,ZAIJIERUZHEIMEDUODEFENGDIAN,JIANGRUHEXIAONA?“DUOWEIYENEIRENSHIDUI《CAIJING》JIZHEBIAOSHILEDANYOU。

盈多多彩票APP  ZHONGDIANLIANFABUDEBAOGAOCHENG,2019NIANQUANGUODIANLIGONGXUZONGTIPINGHENG。DONGBEI、XIBEIQUYUDIANLIGONGYINGNENGLIFUYU;HUABEI、HUADONG、HUAZHONG、NANFANGQUYUDIANLIGONGXUZONGTIPINGHENG 。

盈多多彩票APP  LIXIAOYANGBIAOSHI,FENGDIANXIAONAZUIDADETIAOZHANJIUZAIYUSHOUDIANDUANSHENGFENBINGBUYUANYIJIESHOUQUWAILAIDIAN。XIANGWAISHENGGOUMAIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDIANLISUOHUODEDESHOUYIYOUXIAN,SHOUDIANDUANSHENGFENGENGQINGXIANGYUTOUZIJIANSHEBENTUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANXIANGMU。ZHEIYEYOULIYUJIANGDIYINYUANJULISHUDIANERCHANSHENGDIANWANGDIXIAOYUNXINGDEFENGXIAN。YINCI,FENGDIANXIAONAHAIXUYAOGEJIZHENGFUYIJIXIANGGUANBUMENCHUTAIZHENGCEJIYUZHICHI。

  LINGYIFANGMIAN,YEJIEXIJIFENGDIANZHUANGJIDEKUAISUZENGZHANGNENGJIAKUAITIDAIHUODIANDEBUFA,DANSHIYUYUANWEI,JINNIANYILAI,QUANGUOHUODIANTOUZIDEZENGZHANGSUDUGENGKUAI。

图4:2020年1到7月新增发电装机容量 数据来源:国家能源局

盈多多彩票APP  GUOJIANENGYUANJUFABUDEQUANGUODIANLIGONGYETONGJISHUJUXIANSHI,JINNIAN1YUE~7YUEFEN,HUODIANXINZENGZHUANGJIGAODA2580WANQIANWA,TONGBIXINZENGLE726WANQIANWA,JUSUOYOUDIANYUANXINZENGZHUANGJIZHISHOU。

盈多多彩票APP  CHULEMIANDUIHUODIANDEJINGZHENG,FENGDIANDAJIDIXIANGMUWEILAIHAIYAOYUDONGBUHAISHANGFENGDIAN,YIJIGUANGFUFADIANJINGZHENG。XIEZHANGJUNRENWEI,ZHONGGUOHAISHANGFENGDIANCHENGBENZHUNIANXIAJIANG,YOUWANGZAIWUNIANZUOYOUBAITUOBUTIE,DADAOPINGJIASHANGWANGSHUIPING。JIESHI,DAJIDIWAISONGDEFENGDIANJIANGJINYIBUJIANGDIJINGZHENGLI。

  WUDEMAIKENZIBAOGAOCHENG,ZHONGGUOGUANGFULEIJIZHUANGJIRONGLIANGJIANGYU2020NIANSHOUCIGANCHAOFENGDIANLEIJIZHUANGJILIANG。2019NIAN,GUANGFUXIANGMUDEDUDIANCHENGBENSHOUCIDIYULUSHANGFENGDIANXIANGMU。YUJI2025NIANHOU,GUANGFUYUFENGDIANDEFADIANCHENGBENJUNDIYUMEIDIAN,ZHEILIANGZHONGFADIANJISHUZHIJIANDEJINGZHENGJIANGHUIJIAJU,YOUQISHIZAIFENGZIYUANYUGUANGFUZIYUANFENGFUDESHENGFEN。

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