盈多多彩票APP

2016年风电行业市场情况回顾及发展趋势分析

发布时间:2016-09-06   来源:中国产业信息网

我国风能资源丰富,可开发利用的风能储量约10亿kW,其中,陆地上风能储量约2.53亿kW(陆地上离地10m高度资料计算),海上可开发和利用的风能储量约7.5亿kW,共计10亿kW。从国内自身状况来看,风电市场经过2015年大跨步式的发展,产能达到3000万kW以上。全球风电的产业格局正经历一个调整、重构、再建设的关键节点,而中国的风电产业实现了接连突破,成为世界清洁能源的奇迹。但海上风电比重过低,也成为制约我国风电产业可持续发展的障碍之一。

  2015年,全国(除台湾地区外)新增装机容量30753MW,同比增长32.6%,新增安装风电机组盈多多彩票APP16740台,累计装机容量145362MW,同比增长26.8%,累计安装风电机组92981台。

  2009年—2015年中国新增和累计风电装机数量

盈多多彩票APP  2009NIAN—2015NIANZHONGGUOXINZENGHELEIJIFENGDIANZHUANGJIRONGLIANG

  2015NIAN,WOGUOLIUDAQUYUDEFENGDIANXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGJUNBAOCHIZENGZHANGTAISHI,XIBEIDIQUYIJIUSHIXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGZUIDUODEDIQU,CHAOGUO11GW,ZHANZONGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGDE38%;QITADIQUJUNZAI10GWYIXIA,SUOZHANBILIFENBIEWEIHUABEIDIQU(20%)、XINAN(14%)、HUADONG(13%)、ZHONGNAN(9%)、DONGBEI(6%)。

  YU2014NIANXIANGBI,XINANDIQUTONGBIZENGZHANGFUDUZUIDAWEI91%,QICIWEIZHONGNANDIQUTONGBIZENGZHANGWEI37%,DONGBEIDIQUTONGBIZENGZHANG35%,XIBEITONGBIZENGZHANG27%,HUABEIDIQUHEHUADONGDIQUTONGBIZENGZHANGFENBIEWEI22%HE20%。

  2014年和2015年中国各区域新增风电装机容量份额对比

  2015 年,中国海上风电新增装机100 台,容量达到360.5MW,同比增长58.4%。其中,潮间带装机58 台,容量181.5MW,占海上风电新增装机总量的50.35% ;其余49.65% 为近海项目,装机42 台,容量179MW。2015 年,上海电气的海上风电机组供应量最大,占比达到83.2% ;其次是湘电风能,海上风电吊装容量占比为13.9%。

  JIEZHI2015 NIANDI,ZHONGGUOYIJIANCHENGDEHAISHANGFENGDIANXIANGMUZHUANGJIRONGLIANGGONGJI1014.68MW。QIZHONG,CHAOJIANDAILEIJIFENGDIANZHUANGJIRONGLIANGDADAO611.98MW,ZHANHAISHANGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGDE60.31%,JINHAIFENGDIANZHUANGJIRONGLIANG402.7MW ZHAN39.69%。JIEZHI2015 NIANDI,HAISHANGFENGDIANJIZUGONGYINGSHANGGONG10 JIA,LEIJIZHUANGJIRONGLIANGDADAO100MW YISHANGDEJIZUZHIZAOSHANGYOUSHANGHAIDIANQI、HUARUIFENGDIAN、YUANJINGNENGYUAN、JINFENGKEJI,ZHEISIJIAQIYEHAISHANGFENGDIANJIZUZHUANGJILIANGZHANHAISHANGFENGDIANZHUANGJIZONGLIANGDE86.6%。

  2009NIAN—2015NIANZHONGGUOHAISHANGFENGDIANXINZENGHELEIJIZHUANGJIRONGLIANG

盈多多彩票APP  2015NIANHAISHANGFENGDIANXIANGMUXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGQUYUXIFENQINGKUANG

  2015NIANZHONGGUOKAIFASHANGHAISHANGFENGDIANLEIJIZHUANGJIRONGLIANG(MW)

  2015NIAN,ZHONGGUOFENGDIANYOUXINZENGZHUANGJIDEZHENGJIZHIZAOSHANGGONG26JIA,XINZENGANZHUANGFENGDIANJIZU16740TAI,XINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGWEI30753MW,TONGBIZENGZHANG32.6%。

盈多多彩票APP  QUANGUOLEIJIZHUANGJI1.45YIQIANWA,JIEZHI2015NIANDI,YOUWUJIAZHENGJIZHIZAOQIYEZHUANGJIRONGLIANGCHAOGUO1000WANQIANWA,SHICHANGFENEHEJIDADAO56.8%。

  2015年中国风电新增装机企业排名(万千瓦)

  2015NIANZHONGGUOFENGDIANKAIFAQIYEXINZENGZHUANGJISHICHANGFENE

  2016年风力发电不管是同比增长还是累计增长都达到了10%以上,7月当月风电盈多多彩票APP量相比去年7月同比增长40%以上,1-7月累计风电量相比去年同期增长了约25%。整体来看,从去年7月到今年5月,当月风电量一直呈上升趋势,而6、7月份发电量反而逐渐下降。

  2015年7月—2016年7月中国风力发电情况

  ZILIAOLAIYUAN:GUOJIATONGJIJU

  WOGUOYIWUZHONGFADIANFANGSHIWEIZHU:JIHUOLIFADIAN、SHUILIFADIAN、TAIYANGNENGFADIAN、FENGLIFADIAN、HENENGFADIAN。QIZHONG,HUOLIFADIANYIZHIZHANJUZHEZHUDAODIWEI。JIEZHI2016NIAN7YUEMO,GEXINGSHILEIJIFADIANZHANZONGFADIANLIANGDEBIZHIYIRANSHIHUOLIFADIANJUSHOUWEI,QICISHISHUILIFADIAN、FENGNENGFADIAN、HENENGFADIAN、TAIYANGNENGFADIAN。FENGLIFADIANDEZHANBIYUANYUANLUOHOUYUSHUILIFADIANHEHUOLIFADIAN。

  2016年1-7月五种形式发电量占比情况

  QIFENG,SHIZHIZAIFENGDIANFAZHANCHUQI,FENGJICHUYUZHENGCHANGQINGKUANGXIA,YOUYUDANGDIDIANWANGJIENANENGLIBUZU、FENGDIANCHANGJIANSHEGONGQIBUPIPEIHEFENGDIANBUWENDINGDENGZISHENTEDIANDAOZHIDEBUFENFENGDIANCHANGFENGJIZANTINGDEXIANXIANG。QIFENGZUIDADEYUANYINHAISHIDIANWANGJIANSHESUDUGENBUSHANGQINGJIENENGYUANFAZHANDESUDU。

盈多多彩票APP  2015NIAN,FENGDIANQIFENGXIANDIANXINGSHIJIAJU,QUANNIANQIFENGDIANLIANG339YIQIANWASHI,TONGBIZENGJIA213YIQIANWASHI,PINGJUNQIFENGLV15%,TONGBIZENGJIA7GEBAIFENDIAN。QIZHONGQIFENGJIAOZHONGDEDIQUSHINEIMENGGU(QIFENGDIANLIANG91YIQIANWASHI)、GANSU(QIFENGDIANLIANG82YIQIANWASHI)、XINJIANG(QIFENGDIANLIANG71YIQIANWASHI)、JILIN(QIFENGDIANLIANG27YIQIANWASHI)。

  2015年全国及部分地区弃风情况

盈多多彩票APP  ZONGSHANGKEYIKANCHU,DANGQIANFENGDIANCHANYEMIANLINSANDAWENTI:YISHIFENGDIANCHANYENEIBUJIEGOUBUHELI,GUOFENYILAI“SANBEI”DAJIDI,FENSANSHIFENGDIANHEHAISHANGFENGDIANRENGRANRUOXIAO;ERSHIFENGDIANFADIANLIANGZHANQUANBUFADIANLIANGDEBILIRENGRANJIAODI,BUZU4%;SANSHIQIFENGZHUANGKUANGMEIYOUDEDAOYOUXIAOEZHI。

  目前国内执行的海上风电电价制定到2016年,16年以前投运的近海风电项目上网电价为0.85元/度(含税),潮间带风电项目为0.75元/度。2017年以后的电价政策尚未确定,由于15-16年执行的电价政策投资收益率吸引力不足,预计到2017年海上风电标杆电价有望上调,进一步带动正式商运投资。海上风电由于后期运维成本高昂,对初期设备选型要求严格,特别利好国内高端风电设备制造企业。

  中国风电行业有如何实现健康发展,以下几点需重点关注:

  1 政策层弱化装机规模目标,推进风电合理开发

盈多多彩票APP  “SHIERWU”QIJIANGUOJIANENGYUANJUXIAFAHEZHUNJIHUAGUIMOLEIJI1.38YIQIANWA,QIANSIPIJIHUAPINGJUNWANCHENGLVWEI82%,QIZHONG2014NIANJIHUAWANCHENGLVZUIDIJINWEI56%。2016NIANSHIFENG“SHISANWU”GUIHUABIANZHIZHINIAN,FENGDIANZHUANGJIGUIMORUHEZHIDINGCHENGWEIHEXINJUJIAOWENTI。RANER,ZAIFENGDIANQIFENGXIANDIANXINGSHIYANJUNDEBEIJINGXIA,ZHENGCECENGJINQIJIAOSHAOTIJI“SHISANWU”QIJIANFENGDIANZHUANGJIGUIHUADEMINGQUEMUBIAO,ERSHIQIANGDIAOTIGAOHEZHUNJIHUAZHIXINGLV、XIANGMUSHENPIXIANGFEIXIANDIANQUYUQINGXIE,LITUCONGHONGGUANJIAODUYOUHUAQUANGUOFENGDIANHELIBUJU。

  2 补贴退坡明确,国企或成坚守风电行业最后主体

  继2014年陆上风电标杆电价降低0.2元/kWh后,2015年底发改委预计继续下调2016年陆上风电标杆电价0.1-0.2元/kWh,并同时明确2018年标杆电价继续下调0.2-0.3元/kWh,补贴未来逐年大幅退坡已成为明确政策导向。根据《能源发展战略行动计划(2014-2020年)》,2020年风电上网电价将与煤电电价相当。

盈多多彩票APP  BIAOGANDIANJIAXIADIAOHOUJIANGYOUXIANGDANGYIBUFENFENGDIANXIANGMUBUZAIJUYOUKAIFAJIAZHI,FENGDIANXIANGMUKAIFAZHONGXINJIANGZHUJIANXIANGHUANAN、HUADONGDENGFUHEZHONGXINQUYUJIZHONG。

  补贴迟发欠发现象严重令风电企业盈多多彩票APP现金流更加吃紧,究其原因主要是可再生能源发展基金收不抵支出和繁冗的补贴发放机制。2015年最后一天,国家发改委时隔两年后再次上调可再生能源附加征收标准0.004元/kWh至0.019元/kWh,以拟补可再生能源发展基金缺口。

  SUIRAN,BUTIEFAFANGSHIJIANZHANG、SHOUXUFANZADEWENTIYIZHIBEISHOUGOUBING,RANERWOMENQUEWEIZAIJIANZHENGFANGQUANDEDABEIJINGXIAKANDAOBUTIEFAFANGLIUCHENGYOUHUADEJIXIANG,QIZHENGJIEZAIYUQUANGUOGESHENGZHIJIANYONGDIANLIANGJISHUBUTONG,GESHENGSUOSHOUJIAODEKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFUJIAJINECHAJUYEHENDA。GESHENGZHIJIANDELIYIPINGHENGZHINENGYOUCAIZHENGBUCONGZHONGYANGCAIZHENGCENGMIANJINXING,DAOZHIBUTIETUOQIANWENTIYIZHIWEINENGJIEJUE。

盈多多彩票APP  BUTIEXIAJIANGBINGQIECHIFAQIANFADAOZHIFENGDIANQIYEXIANJINLIUNANYIFUGAIYINXINGDAIKUANLIXI,ZIJINSHILIJIAORUODEMINYINGFENGDIANQIYEQIANJINGKANYOU,ERGUOYOUQIYEPINGJIEDICHENGBENDERONGZINENGLIHEJIAOGAODEFENGXIANCHENGSHOUNENGLIHUOJIANGCHENGWEIFENGDIANXINGYEDEZUIHOUJIANSHOUZHE。

  3 跨区域送电缓解风电消纳问题待解

  中国电力负荷和能源资源之间的错位现象决定了跨区域送电成为中国电力未来发展的主要方向,特高压、跨区域送电线路建设逐年提速将助力电力远距输送。2014年全国跨区域送电量2997亿千瓦时,占全国供电量的6.16%。

盈多多彩票APP  RANER,BUKEHUSHIDESHI,DIANYUANGUIHUAHEDIANWANGGUIHUABINGWEIDADAOPIPEIFAZHANDEJUNHENGZHUANGTAI,YONGYOUDALIANGFENGDIAN、HUODIANJIZUDE“SANBEIDIQU”BORUODEWANGJIAJIEGOUYIJIYINTEGAOYAJIAOLIUJIANSHEXIANGDUIHUANMANZAOCHENGDE”QIANGZHIRUOJIAO“DEWENTIYANZHONGZHIYUELEKUAQUYUSONGDIANNENGLI。CIWAI,RUHEPINGHENGKUAQUSONGDIANSHENGHESHOUDIANSHENGZHIJIANDELIYIGUANXIYECHENGWEILEKUAQUYUDAIJIENANTIZHIYI。

  CICIDIANGAITICHUYOUXIANSHOUGOUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDIANNENGDEGUIDINGJIANGYOUZHUYULISHUNKUAQUYUSONGDIANXIANCUNWENTI,HUANJIEFENGDIANXIAONANANTI,TISHENGZAOJIAJIAOGAODETEGAOYA、KUAQUYUSONGDIANXIANLULIYONGXIAOLV。

  4 风电环评、用地审批将更为规范

  FENGDIANDAGUIMOFAZHANCHUQI,DIFANGZHENGFUWEIZHICHIFENGDIANXIANGMUJIANSHE,MOXUMOUXIEFENGDIANXIANGMUZAIWEIQUDETUDI、LINYE、HUANBAODENGQIANZHISHOUXUQINGKUANGXIAKAIGONGJIANSHE,JIANSHEQIJIANYESHUYUDUISHUITUBAOCHI、SHENGTAIHUANJINGBAOHUDEJIANCEGUANLI,BUFENFENGDIANQIYEZEJIEJIWEIGUIYONGDI、LUANKANLUANFA,ZHIZAITIGONGLVSEDIANLIDEFENGDIANXIANGMUQUEJIDANGDISHENGTAIHUANJINGZAOCHENGLEXIANZHUDEYINGXIANG。

盈多多彩票APP  YISHANGWENTIYIJINGYINQILEGUOJIAHEGEJIZHENGFUDEGAODUZHONGSHI,WEILAIFENGDIANXIANGMUHUANPING、YONGDISHENPIJIANGZHUBUGUIFAN,SHOUXUBANLIJINDUJIANGCHENGWEIYINGXIANGXIANGMUJIANSHEZHOUQIDEZHONGYAOYINSU。

  5 电网友好型性风电场将成为主流

盈多多彩票APP  JINNIANLAIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANJIERUBILIZHUNIANTIGAODAOZHIDIANLIGONGYINGCEBODONGXINGZHUJIANSHENGGAO,WEIBAOZHENGDIANLIXITONGANQUAN,DIANWANGBIXUTONGSHIYINGDUIGONGYINGCE、XUQIUCESHUANGXIANGDEDAFUBODONG。MUQIANDUODIDIANWANGYICHUTAIZHENGCE,YAOQIUFENGDIANXIANGMUANZHUANGYOUGONGGONGLVKONGZHI(AGC)、WUGONGGONGLVKONGZHI(AVC)、FENGGONGLVYUCEDENGSHEBEI,BINGTONGGUOJILISHOUDUANGULIFADIANQUXIANYUCEZHUNQUELVGAO、YUCEJIKONGZHISHEBEIQIQUANDEDIANWANGYOUHAOXINGFENGDIANCHANGXIANFA、DUOFA。

  DUANQINEIXIANDIANQINGKUANGWUFAJIEJUEDEQIANTIXIA,FENGDIANQIYEJIEZHUDASHUJU、YUNJISUANDENGSHOUDUANTIGAOFENGGONGLVYUCEJINGZHUNDU,ZHENGQUYOUXIANDIAODUDEZHUDONGQUANJIANGYOUZHUYUTISHENGQIYEXIAOYI。

盈多多彩票APP  CIWAI,DIANGAIPEITAOWENJIANTICHUJIANLIFUZHUFUWUJIAOYIJIZHI,FENGDIANQIYEKEYIJIEHEZISHENFUHETEXINGYUTIGONGDIAOFENG、DIAOYADENGFUZHUFUWUSHANGQIANDINGFUWUHETONG,TIGAOYOUXIANFADIANJIBIE。

  6 风电造价降幅将放缓

  获益于风电机组设备价格、原材料价格走低,2014年风电工程造价为7551元/千瓦,较2013年下降2.67%。与光伏设备有较清晰的成本下降趋势不同,风电机组目前暂无突破性技术可以大幅降低机组成本,占整个风电项目成本近一半的风机购置成本下降空间较小。

盈多多彩票APP  FENGDIANZHONGDIANKAIFAQUYUYOUXIANDIANYANZHONGDE“SANBEIDIQU”ZHUJIANZHUANXIANGHUANAN、XINAN、HUADONGDIQU,CILEIDIQUHAIBAGAO、JIANSHETIAOJIANFUZA,DAOZHIFENGDIANJIANANCHENGBENXIANZHUGAOYUBEIFANGCAOYUAN、QIULINGDIQU。CIWAI,YINTUDIZIYUANJINZHANG、KAIFANANDUZENGDA,ZHENGDICHENGBEN、QIANQIFEIYONGYECHENGZHUNIANSHANGSHENGDEQUSHI。

  ZONGHEYISHANGYINSU,2016NIANFENGDIANZHENGTIZAOJIAJIANGFUJIANGFANGHUANHUOCHENGCHIPINGZHUANGTAI。

  7 风电及零件关税降低,风电设备市场竞争愈加激烈

盈多多彩票APP  JIAGEANGGUIDEJINKOUFENGJIPINGJIEQIZHILIANGYOUSHIHEJISHUYOUSHIJINNIANLAIBAOCHIZHEWENDINGDEZENGZHANGSUDU,2014NIANJINKOUFENGJILEIJIZHUANGJIZHANBIYUE10%。

  2016NIANYUANDANKAISHI,FENGDIANJIZU、FENGJIFADONGJILINGJIAN、FENGDIANSHEBEILINGJIANJINKOUGUANSHUISHUILVJIANGYOU8%、8%、3%XIAJIANGZHI5%、5%、1%,GUANSHUIJIANGDIYIFANGMIANLIHAOWOGUOGUOCHANFENGDIANSHEBEICHENGBENXIAJIANG,LINGYIFANGMIANYEJIANGSHIJINKOUFENGJIYUGUOCHANFENGJIZHIJIANDEJINGZHENGGENGJIAJILIE。

  2016对于中国风电行业来说将是挑战大于机遇的一年,如何合理战略规划布局、控制造价水平、减少弃风限电损失都是风电行业丞待解决的问题。

      关键词: 风电

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